Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat Prediction, Picks & Odds (Oct 21, 2026)
Wed, Oct 21, 7:40 PM ET
Our pick
Miami Heat moneyline -132, published Aug 19, 2026, 9:16 PM ET.
Why we pick Miami Heat
We pick Miami Heat on the moneyline at -132 when we published it on Aug 19. We back the side the odds favor, and that price implies a 57% chance of the Heat winning. Bovada, the only partner sportsbook pricing this game so far, has the Heat at -120 on the moneyline, a margin-free 52.2%.
Line movement: the Miami Heat moneyline has moved from -132 to -120 since Sep 7 (daily snapshots of the bet365 line).
The Timberwolves are 1-4 in their last 5, averaging 104.6 scored and 124.4 allowed; most recently losing to San Antonio Spurs 109-139 on May 15, 2026. The Heat are 3-2 in their last 5, averaging 130.4 scored and 118.8 allowed; most recently beating Toronto Raptors 129-105 on October 3, 2026.
In the last 2 meetings in our results history, the Heat have won 0 and the Timberwolves 2. The most recent was on January 6, 2026: Miami Heat 94, Minnesota Timberwolves 122.
Injury report: the Timberwolves list 1 (Donte DiVincenzo, Sidelined); the Heat list 3 (Trevor Keels, Questionable; Bam Adebayo, Questionable; Myron Gardner, Questionable).
Market vs best price
We don't run a projection model. This compares the sportsbooks' own view with the best price you can get.
- Consensus win probability for Miami Heat (margin removed, 1 books)
- 52.2%
- Best price
- -120 at Bovada (54.6% implied)
- Difference
- -2.4 points
Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat odds
American odds, main line. The best price in each column is in bold.
| Sportsbook | Minnesota Timberwolves ML | Miami Heat ML | Minnesota Timberwolves spread | Miami Heat spread | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada | +100 | -120 | +1.5 -110 | -1.5 -110 | O 242.5 -110 | U 242.5 -110 |
| BetOnline | — | — | +1.5 -110 | -1.5 -110 | O 243 -110 | U 243 -110 |
Line movement
- Miami Heat moneyline: -132 → -120 since Sep 7 (daily snapshots of the bet365 line)
Injuries
Minnesota Timberwolves
- Donte DiVincenzo: Sidelined, Achilles - Expected to be out until at least Apr 1
Miami Heat
- Trevor Keels: Questionable, Knee - Questionable for start of season
- Bam Adebayo: Questionable, Back - Questionable for start of season
- Myron Gardner: Questionable, Ankle - Questionable for start of season
Recent form
Minnesota Timberwolves
- May 15, 2026: L 109-139 vs San Antonio Spurs
- May 12, 2026: L 97-126 at San Antonio Spurs
- May 10, 2026: W 114-109 vs San Antonio Spurs
- May 8, 2026: L 108-115 vs San Antonio Spurs
- May 6, 2026: L 95-133 at San Antonio Spurs
Miami Heat
- October 3, 2026: W 129-105 at Toronto Raptors
- April 14, 2026: L 126-127 at Charlotte Hornets
- April 12, 2026: W 143-117 vs Atlanta Hawks
- April 10, 2026: W 140-117 at Washington Wizards
- April 9, 2026: L 114-128 at Toronto Raptors
Head to head
- January 6, 2026: Miami Heat 94, Minnesota Timberwolves 122
- January 3, 2026: Minnesota Timberwolves 125, Miami Heat 115
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