Closing line value
Closing line value compares the price you got with the last price before the game started.
Key points
- Betting +150 on a team that closes at +130 is 2.50 / 2.30 - 1 = 8.7% closing line value.
- Betting -110 on a side that closes at -120 is +4.1%; the reverse is -4.0%.
- One bet's CLV says little; the average over 100 or more bets says much more than the win-loss record.
On this page
What the closing line is
The closing line is the last price before the game starts. By then the books have seen injury news, lineups, weather and all the money bet on the game. That makes the close the market's best estimate of each side's chance.
You bet early, the price moves
- Your price
- +150
- Closing price
- +130
- Your decimal
- 2.50
- CLV
- +8.7%
2.50 / 2.30 - 1 = 8.7%. You got a price the market later decided was too generous.
Work out your CLV
Convert both prices to decimal odds, divide yours by the closing one and subtract 1. Positive means you beat the close; negative means the price got better after you bet.
The closing price includes the book's margin, which makes it a worse price than fair, so this measure flatters you a little. A stricter version removes the margin from both closing prices first, as shown in our vig guide, and compares your price with the no-vig close.
Why CLV beats the win-loss record
Results are noisy. A bettor who wins 55% of -110 bets over 100 bets could easily be a 50% bettor on a good run. CLV moves much less from luck: you either got a better price than the close or you didn't, win or lose.
| Yours | Break-even | Close | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|
| -110 | 52.4% | -120 | +4.1% |
| -105 | 51.2% | -115 | +4.4% |
| +120 | 45.5% | +110 | +4.8% |
Consistently beating the close means you're getting prices the market later rates as too high. Over enough bets, that tends to show up in the results too.
Our picks against the close
Each pick on our picks pages is posted with its price and the book offering it. Once the game starts, we record each book's closing price. Here are our graded picks with a closing line at the same book.
| Pick | Posted | Close | CLV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Lightning (NHL) | -164 at BetOnline | -169 | +1.3% | Lost |
| Edmonton Oilers (NHL) | -130 at BetOnline | -108 | -8.3% | Won |
| Boston Bruins (NHL) | -213 at BetOnline | -233 | +2.8% | Won |
| St. Louis Blues (NHL) | -112 at BetOnline | +101 | -6.0% | Won |
| Marshall (NCAAF) | -145 at Bovada | -147 | +0.6% | Won |
| Ole Miss (NCAAF) | -476 at MyBookie | -417 | -2.4% | Won |
| Michigan (NCAAF) | -667 at Bovada | -769 | +1.8% | Won |
| Iowa (NCAAF) | -179 at MyBookie | -143 | -8.2% | Won |
Graded picks since October 8, 2026 with a recorded closing line at the book whose price we posted; 4 of 8 beat the close. CLV is worked out from the books' exact decimal prices, so it can differ by 0.1 from the rounded American prices shown.
Our picks are the market favorite at the time we post them, so they follow the market rather than try to beat it. The record so far is small. The full list of picks and results is on each sport's picks page, such as NFL picks.
How to use it
- Write down the price you bet and the closing price at the same book.
- Average the CLV over at least 100 bets before reading much into it.
- Take the best price available when you bet: line shopping raises your CLV directly.
Frequently asked questions
What is closing line value?
How much better (or worse) your price was than the last price before the game started, usually shown as a percentage.
How do I calculate CLV?
Divide your decimal odds by the closing decimal odds and subtract 1. +150 against a +130 close is 2.50 / 2.30 - 1 = 8.7%.
Is positive CLV a guarantee of profit?
No. It's a sign you're getting good prices, not a promise. Any single bet can still lose.
Why compare with the closing line?
By the start, the closing price reflects all the news and money on the game, so it's the market's best estimate of each side's chance.
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