Futures betting explained
A futures bet is on something decided later in the season, such as the champion, an award or a team's win total.
Key points
- $20 on a team at +1000 to win the title pays $200 profit if it does.
- Add up the implied chances of a whole field and the total is well above 100%; that's the margin.
- Your stake is held until the bet settles, which can be months.
On this page
How a futures bet works
The book lists every team or player with a price, and the bet settles when the season or event ends. Prices move all season as teams win, lose and get hurt, but your bet keeps the price you took.
$20 on a team to win the title at +1000
- Stake
- $20
- Price
- +1000
- If it wins
- +$200
- Implied chance
- 9.1%
100 / 1100 = 9.1%. If the team's price later drops to +400, your bet still pays at +1000.
- Outright winners: the champion, a conference or a division.
- Awards: most valuable player, rookie of the year and similar.
- Season win totals: over or under a number of regular-season wins.
- Make or miss the playoffs: yes or no.
Why the margin is bigger
In a two-way market, both sides add up to about 104% or 105%. A futures market has many sides, and each one carries some margin, so the total climbs much higher.
| Team | Price | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| Team A | +250 | 28.6% |
| Team B | +300 | 25.0% |
| Team C | +500 | 16.7% |
| Team D | +600 | 14.3% |
| Team E | +900 | 10.0% |
| Team F | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Team G | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Team H | +2500 | 3.8% |
Those chances add up to 110.8%, so the margin is 10.8%. Our vig guide works the two-way version; the method is the same with more teams.
The cost of waiting
A bet placed in September on a February champion holds your money for five months. That money can't be used for other bets, and if your team's chances fade you can only hope or hedge.
That's also when hedging comes up. If your +1000 team reaches the final, you can bet the other side to guarantee a result either way. Our hedging guide has a calculator for it.
Rules to check before betting a future
- Ties on awards and stat leaders: books often split the payout between tied winners (dead heat rules). A win total that lands exactly on the number is a push.
- Season length: win totals usually need a full season played to stand.
Frequently asked questions
What is a futures bet?
A bet on an outcome decided later in the season, such as the champion, an award or a team's win total.
When does a futures bet pay out?
When the event is decided, often at the end of the season. The stake is held until then.
Why are futures margins higher?
Each team's price carries some margin, and a field has many teams, so the implied chances add up well above 100%.
Can I hedge a futures bet?
Yes. If your pick reaches the final, you can bet the other side to lock in a result either way.
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